From four-leaf clovers to horse shoes and rabbit’s feet, humans have always been fascinated by luck. But what if luck isn’t just superstition or chance? Can it actually be influenced by mindset, behaviour, or even preparation?
And what does science, particularly from institutions like the University of Oxford, have to say about it?
What Is Luck, Scientifically Speaking?
In academic terms, luck is often defined as outcomes that are largely beyond our control. It encompasses random events, coincidences, and probabilities that fall in or out of our favour.
But a growing body of interdisciplinary research suggests that what we call “luck” may not be entirely random, and that our perception, psychology, and behaviour might play a role in shaping it.
Oxford and the Psychology of Luck
One of the most influential studies in this field is the long-running “Luck Project” by psychologist Dr. Richard Wiseman. Though originally from University College London, Wiseman’s work has been closely tied to collaborators in Oxford’s academic network. His research found that people who consider themselves lucky tend to share certain traits:
- They are more open to new experiences
- They are highly observant and alert to opportunities
- They maintain a resilient, positive outlook
These findings align with research from Oxford University’s Department of Experimental Psychology, which explores how cognitive biases, such as the “illusion of control”, shape our beliefs about luck and influence our decisions under uncertainty.
For instance, a recent Oxford study on probabilistic reasoning found that people who believe in luck are more likely to engage in risky behaviour (like gambling), yet their optimism can paradoxically help them persevere and sometimes succeed. You have to be in it to win, as they say.
Is Luck Just Preparation in Disguise?
Oxford-affiliated research also suggests that luck may be, in part, self-generated. In his book The Luck Factor, Wiseman argues that certain behaviours, like being open to new experiences or building social networks, significantly increase a person’s chances of encountering lucky breaks.
Through many experiments, Wiseman proved that the luckier people were simply more alert to chance opportunities presented to them. So you do truly make your own luck.
In one, participants were asked to count the number of photographs in a newspaper. Some participants finished quickly because they noticed a large message early on that revealed the answer (“There are 43 photographs”). Others focused solely on the task, missed the obvious clue.
And this was proven to be lucky or unlucky, when the next task had a message offering $250 for noticing it. The unluckier participants overlooked it, showing the luckiest people are more observant and open to unexpected opportunities.
Further, Oxford scholars have studied how small positive events early in life or career can lead to compounded success. A notable example is the working paper “Selecting the Best: The Persistent Effects of Luck,” which found that early career “wins,” even random ones, can snowball into long-term advantages.
The Moral Question: Who Deserves Success?
Oxford philosopher Neil Levy tackles the question of “moral luck” in his book Hard Luck: How Luck Undermines Free Will and Moral Responsibility. He explores how elements of randomness affect our sense of justice and fairness, and whether we can truly hold individuals morally accountable for outcomes heavily influenced by chance.
These discussions impact everything from hiring practices to social policy, pushing us to rethink the role of effort versus opportunity.
What Do the Numbers Say?
Oxford has long been a centre for statistical and probabilistic research. Professor David Spiegelhalter, while now at Cambridge, has given public lectures at Oxford outlining how tools like Monte Carlo simulations and chaos theory reveal patterns in seemingly random systems.
So what does this mean in practice? Take the lottery, for example. the odds of winning the lottery jackpot in the UK are roughly 1 in 45 million. Statistically, you’re far more likely to be struck by lightning or become an astronaut. And yet, many people continue to play, driven by what psychologists term the availability bias, our brain’s tendency to overestimate rare but emotionally resonant events.
The term luck of the Irish comes from success of 19th Century miners in the gold rush, but it was just higher probability due to the numbers of Irish immigrants out there mining. The likelihood to find the single four leaf clover is higher in a field of 10 than 10,000, but only if you have the willingness to succeed.
Is Luck in Our Genes, Mindset, or Actions?
Recent interdisciplinary research at Oxford is also probing whether certain personality traits make people more likely to feel or appear “lucky.” Traits such as resilience, optimism, and extraversion are linked to higher self-reported luck. There is even ongoing inquiry into how neurological or genetic predispositions to risk-taking might shape our life outcomes.
But do lucky people have things in common? Some things are clear, smile in life and people warm to you. That opens up new doors of opportunity in various aspects. Your attitude shapes how you are treated, which gives you elements of control.
And how you handle set-backs also makes a difference, with a positive attitude always yielding better results than hiding away. If you hide away, you are stuck with that bad luck until you create an opportunity for it to change. Or will fate and destiny find you hiding in bed? Are unlucky people simply not making their own luck in a self-fulfilling prophecy?
How to Improve Your Odds: Evidence-Based Advice
While you can’t guarantee success, science suggests you can tip the scales in your favour. Here are some proven strategies:
- Expose yourself to new experiences: New settings increase the chance of chance encounters.
- Practise mindfulness: Awareness helps you spot subtle opportunities others miss.
- Reframe setbacks: Resilient thinkers turn misfortune into learning moments.
- Keep a luck journal: Documenting daily positives helps reinforce an opportunistic mindset.
- Expand your network: More connections = more serendipitous possibilities.
Conclusion
From cognitive psychology to philosophy and statistics, the University of Oxford has contributed significantly to our understanding of the science of luck. While we can’t eliminate randomness from life, research suggests that serendipity isn’t entirely beyond our influence with the right mindset and routine.
By nurturing a mindset of awareness, openness, and resilience, we just might give luck the space it needs to show up. Because while we can’t change the odds of the lottery, we can improve the odds in life.
